人們喜歡排行榜。這就是為什么英國《金融時報》的商學院排名會被仔細研究、討論和剖析的原因所在。我們對此心知肚明，因為每次我們發布一組排名之后，網站的訪問量就會大幅增加。People love lists. That’s why the Financial Times’s business education rankings are pored over, debated and dissected. We know this because every time we publish a set of rankings, our website traffic jumps.

對于任何關心商學院教育的人來說，追蹤從一所學校獲得的文憑與從另一所學校獲得的文憑之間在價值上有何差異很有吸引力和娛樂性，更不用說是明智之舉了。英國《金融時報》的研究顯示，一個MBA畢業生的平均成本——包括收入損失——超過20萬美元。For anyone who cares about business education, tracking how valuable a qualification from one school might be relative to another is absorbing and entertaining, not to mention sensible. The average cost — including lost earnings — of an MBA is more than $200,000, according to FT research.

我在英國《金融時報》的團隊負責這些龐大的數據項目。但是，最近對這類排名所產生的心理影響進行的研究，讓我對即使計算能力超群的人解讀我們排名的方法感到擔憂。當我們看到一個排行榜時，似乎忘記了我們知道的所有數學基礎知識。My team at the FT is responsible for these massive data projects. But recent studies into the psychological effects of such lists has caused me to worry about how even highly numerate people interpret our rankings. The minute we see a list, it seems, we forget everything we know about basic maths.

根據《市場研究雜志》(Journal of Marketing Research) 2014年發表的一份美國研究報告，當我們拿到一個排行榜時，我們會將其劃分為幾個等級。因此，以英國《金融時報》MBA課程前100排名為例，為了更好地解讀這份榜單，我們可能會簡單地將它們劃分為前10、前20、前50等等級來進行考慮，并以此類推做出判斷。The FT will publish its Executive Education programme rankings early next month, so this seems like a good time to think about it.According to a 2014 US study published in the Journal of Consumer Research, when we are presented with a list, we look for boundaries. So in order to make sense of, say, the FT’s ranked list of the top 100 MBA programmes, we probably simplify by thinking in terms of — and passing judgment on — the first 10 programmes, the first 20, the first 50 and so on.

通過對照實驗，研究人員發現，人們會認為第9名和第10名之間沒什么差別。但是，當我們將第11名——處于心理邊界的不利一邊——與第10名進行比較時，盡管名次也僅差一名，我們卻認為兩者的差別很大。換句話說，我們的判斷非常不公平：我們認為，處于我們劃分的第一個等級內的排名價值非常高，且我們喜歡以0結尾的數字。大多數商學院不愿意排到第11位。Using controlled experiments, researchers found people perceive little difference between ninth and 10th place in a ranking. But when we weigh 11th — the wrong side of that mental boundary — against 10th, we perceive the difference as much greater, though the increment is the same. In other words, our judgment is highly unfair: we regard a placement within our first boundary as very valuable, and we like numbers ending in 0. Most business schools would prefer not to be number 11.

研究人員證實，這些觀念對商學院的申請產生了連鎖反應。他們對3年里為申請商學院而參加管理專業研究生入學考試 (GMAT)的近50萬考生的偏好進行了調查，并將考生傾向申請的學校數據與相關學校在一個流行的排行榜中的排名變化進行了比較。果然，預測學校收到申請的數量的一個最好指標是排名是否跨越了一個等級——例如，從第12名上升至第10名，或者從第18名下降到第20名。The researchers established that these perceptions have a knock-on effect on business school applications. They looked at the preferences of almost 500,000 candidates taking the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) exam for business schools over three years, mapping data for preferred schools against movements in a popular school’s ranking. Sure enough, the best predictor of numbers of applications a school received was if it passed a round-number boundary — from 12th to 10th, say, or from 18th to 20th.

這表明我們假定每個名次之間存在相同的質量差距。但這毫無道理：英國《金融時報》根據20多個不同的標準對MBA課程進行排名。有些名次之間的差距可能要比其他名次之間的差距大得多。This suggests we assume an even gap in quality between each numerical placement. But that makes no sense: the FT ranks MBA programmes on more than 20 separate criteria. Some increments are likely to be much bigger than others.

參加第一項研究的兩名研究人員將工作深入了一步，他們發現當大學登廣告宣傳其排名時（許多大學都會這么做），似乎出現了同樣的不理性行為。《市場營銷雜志》(Journal of Marketing)一篇處于高級審閱階段的最新研究報告想要弄清楚，一個學校在宣傳材料中使用百分數排名，是否比使用數字排名更有利呢？該研究發現，如果一所學校在前50排行榜上位列前20，那么最好將自己描述為“前20”，而不是“前40％”。報告作者預計將在今年晚些時候發表報告。Two of the researchers from that first study have taken the work further, and it seems that the same irrationality occurs when universities advertise their positions in rankings (as many do). A new study under advanced review in the Journal of Marketing sets out to establish whether a school would be better off using a percentage versus a numerical rank in its promotional material. It turns out that if a school is ranked in the top 20 in a list of 50, it would be well advised to describe itself as being ‘in the top 20’, rather than ‘in the top 40 per cent’. The authors are expecting the study to be published later this year.

這同樣是因為，即使是商學院未來的學生也會忘記數學知識。研究人員認為，這些人認為“前20”比“前40％”靠前——即使排名（前50中排名前20）其實是一樣的。排名略次于前100的課程最好用百分數排名。That is because, once again, even prospective business school students forget about maths. The researchers believe they perceive 20 to be higher than 40 — even though the position (20 out of 50) is the same. Programmes ranked just outside a top 100 would be well advised to tout a percentage.

“即便計算能力很強的人也會有這樣的偏見，”研究報告的合著者、西雅圖大學(Seattle University)阿爾伯斯經濟與工商管理學院(Albers School of Business and Economics)的教授馬修•艾薩克(Mathew Isaac)說。“Even highly numerate people are guilty of these biases,” says Professor Mathew Isaac of Seattle University — Albers School of Business and Economics, who co-authored the studies.

商學院很清楚，聲譽是情感化的東西，未來的學生會對此做出相應的反應，這可能解釋了他們為什么會完全失去理性思維：“事實證明，可能出現確認偏誤——你可能不會以同樣的方式來評判同樣的排名或排名提升，”艾薩克教授說。As business schools know, reputation is an emotional subject and prospective students respond accordingly, which could explain why logic flies out of the window: “Confirmation bias is proven to be likely — you may not judge the same rankings or jumps in the same way,” says Prof Isaac.

大多數人沒有MBA或其他商學院文憑，但他們認識的某個人、面試的某個人、聘用的某個人、與之競爭的某個人，或他們的子女（他們為其支付學費）有商學院文憑。許多人都會參加某種形式的管理人員教育培訓。這幾乎涵蓋了所有人，這意味著上述判斷錯誤會產生很大的影響。Most people do not hold an MBA or any other business school qualification, but they are likely to know someone, interview someone, employ someone, compete with someone or be the parent of (and paying for) someone who does. Many will study some form of executive education. That covers pretty much everyone, which means these errors of judgment matter.

排名有助于幫助申請者選擇課程，但是（正如批評者經常提醒我的那樣），排名并未告訴我們很多關于策劃、教授、營運和管理一個高品質課程背后所投入的人力、技能和專業知識方面的信息。如果我們忘記了這一點，那么我們就真的忘記了最基礎的東西。Rankings are useful to help applicants choose a course, but (as their critics often remind me) they do not tell us much about the human effort, skill and expertise that goes into planning, teaching, running and administering high-quality courses. If we forget about that, then we really have forgotten the basics.